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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 June 20
COVID-19 COULD CAUSE A BOOM IN COAL POWER - RYSTAD ENERGY | OILPRICE
COVID-19 has not only impacted the energy industry’s revenues but also its infrastructure development.
The delay of new natural gas ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 0.9 PCT IN JANUARY-MAY: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 0.9 percent year on year to 1.47 billion tonnes in the first five months of this year, official data showed.
& ...
Monday, 22 June 20
KAMSARMAX TYPES REGULARLY HIT THE $9,000 PER DAY LEVEL FOR INDONESIAN COAL RUN TO CHINA, BALTIC BRIEFING SAYS
Capesize
The Capesize market trajectory this week has been one of the steepest rallies the sector has experienced. Opening at $12,410, the sect ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals im ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
NO ESCAPING GLOBAL TRADE SLUMP - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Those hoping for a decent recovery in trade in the second half of the year should prepare for disappointment.
New data from the Unit ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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