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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 June 20
COVID-19 COULD CAUSE A BOOM IN COAL POWER - RYSTAD ENERGY | OILPRICE
COVID-19 has not only impacted the energy industry’s revenues but also its infrastructure development.
The delay of new natural gas ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 0.9 PCT IN JANUARY-MAY: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 0.9 percent year on year to 1.47 billion tonnes in the first five months of this year, official data showed.
& ...
Monday, 22 June 20
KAMSARMAX TYPES REGULARLY HIT THE $9,000 PER DAY LEVEL FOR INDONESIAN COAL RUN TO CHINA, BALTIC BRIEFING SAYS
Capesize
The Capesize market trajectory this week has been one of the steepest rallies the sector has experienced. Opening at $12,410, the sect ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals im ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
NO ESCAPING GLOBAL TRADE SLUMP - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Those hoping for a decent recovery in trade in the second half of the year should prepare for disappointment.
New data from the Unit ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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