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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 29 June 20
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000 FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA EAST COAST INDIA, REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As the halfway mark of 2020 arrives, the capesize market is making new highs for the year. From persistent lows earlier caused by a ba ...
Saturday, 27 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 26 June 20
WHAT TODAY'S BAILOUTS CAN DO FOR TOMORROW'S ECONOMIES - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
The COVID-19 crisis provides an opportunity for governments to build fairer, more sustainable and more resilient economies.
Governments a ...
Thursday, 25 June 20
ALL YOU WANT TO KNOW ABOUT COAL MINE AUCTIONS - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi threw open the auction of 41 coal blocks for commercial mining. The decision, which was part of the announc ...
Wednesday, 24 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The World Bank estimates that the global economy will fall by 5.2% this year, underlining that the Covid-19 pandemic has had rapid and massive cons ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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