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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 29 June 20
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000 FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA EAST COAST INDIA, REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As the halfway mark of 2020 arrives, the capesize market is making new highs for the year. From persistent lows earlier caused by a ba ...
Saturday, 27 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 26 June 20
WHAT TODAY'S BAILOUTS CAN DO FOR TOMORROW'S ECONOMIES - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
The COVID-19 crisis provides an opportunity for governments to build fairer, more sustainable and more resilient economies.
Governments a ...
Thursday, 25 June 20
ALL YOU WANT TO KNOW ABOUT COAL MINE AUCTIONS - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi threw open the auction of 41 coal blocks for commercial mining. The decision, which was part of the announc ...
Wednesday, 24 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The World Bank estimates that the global economy will fall by 5.2% this year, underlining that the Covid-19 pandemic has had rapid and massive cons ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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