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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was beginning of 2020 – close to 6 months from now – when we first experienced the huge impact of the COVID 19 outbreak on Ship Repa ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL AT THE MERCY OF THE DRAGON AND TIGER - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
Coal sector analysts have been busy in recent months mapping the negative impact of low coal prices from the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesian coal c ...
Monday, 29 June 20
FALLING DEMAND IN CHINA AND INDIA SIGNAL TOUGH TIMES AHEAD FOR INDONESIAN EXPORTS - GHEE PEH | EEFA
Assessing the Impact on Indonesian Coal Companies
The bad news for Indonesia’s coal companies is that they are likely to have ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a ...
Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in th ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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