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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 10 July 20
GLOBAL SHIPPING EARNINGS FORECAST CUT AS SUPPLY SET TO OUTSTRIP DEMAND - MOODY'S
EBITDA forecast worsens, keeping outlook negative. We now expect the aggregate EBITDA of rated shipping companies to fall by around 16%-18% in 2020 ...
Friday, 10 July 20
SLOW RECOVERY IN TANKER RATES TO WEIGH ON BUANA LINTAS LAUTAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that international tanker rates are likely improve after their sharp fall since May 2020, albeit at a slow pace. The weaknes ...
Wednesday, 08 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the previous month, the dry bulk market witnessed an impressive increase in the BDI index that has reached 1800 points from 500 with a clear ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
COAL INDIA WORKERS STRIKE CUTS OUTPUT BY 56%: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
A strike at Coal India Ltd cut production by 56% in the three days ending July 4 as workers oppose opening up coal mining to the private sector, a ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
WHAT DOES THE PATHWAY TO A NET-ZERO ECONOMY LOOK LIKE FOR MINERS? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wind, solar, electric vehicles, stationary storage and transmission are all central to achieving the Paris Agreement decarbonisation goals.
&nb ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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