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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 15 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS FALL 6.7% Y/Y ON PORT CURBS - REUTERS
China’s coal imports dropped 6.7% in June from the same period last year, as stringent import restrictions at ports impeded purchases by trad ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.75 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 126.01 points Monday, up 0.75 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
TURKEY - A CASE OF UNDECLARED BUNKER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Undeclared/excess bunkers can be considered a criminal act by Turkish customs officials with the ship's crew being ac ...
Monday, 13 July 20
PANAMAX: A TUMULTUOUS WEEK IN THE PANAMAX MARKET ENSURED ALL MARKETS GAINED VALUE ON THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week witnessed the dreaded correction in the Capesize market, with the time charter average shedding almost 18 per cent to close ...
Friday, 10 July 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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