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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 15 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS FALL 6.7% Y/Y ON PORT CURBS - REUTERS
China’s coal imports dropped 6.7% in June from the same period last year, as stringent import restrictions at ports impeded purchases by trad ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.75 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 126.01 points Monday, up 0.75 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
TURKEY - A CASE OF UNDECLARED BUNKER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Undeclared/excess bunkers can be considered a criminal act by Turkish customs officials with the ship's crew being ac ...
Monday, 13 July 20
PANAMAX: A TUMULTUOUS WEEK IN THE PANAMAX MARKET ENSURED ALL MARKETS GAINED VALUE ON THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week witnessed the dreaded correction in the Capesize market, with the time charter average shedding almost 18 per cent to close ...
Friday, 10 July 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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