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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 15 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS FALL 6.7% Y/Y ON PORT CURBS - REUTERS
China’s coal imports dropped 6.7% in June from the same period last year, as stringent import restrictions at ports impeded purchases by trad ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.75 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 126.01 points Monday, up 0.75 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
TURKEY - A CASE OF UNDECLARED BUNKER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Undeclared/excess bunkers can be considered a criminal act by Turkish customs officials with the ship's crew being ac ...
Monday, 13 July 20
PANAMAX: A TUMULTUOUS WEEK IN THE PANAMAX MARKET ENSURED ALL MARKETS GAINED VALUE ON THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week witnessed the dreaded correction in the Capesize market, with the time charter average shedding almost 18 per cent to close ...
Friday, 10 July 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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