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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 20 July 20
COAL INDIA LAUNCHES SPECIAL CATEGORY OF E-AUCTION FOR COAL IMPORTERS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) on Friday launched a special category of e-auction for importers of coal. This is in line with the government’s declaration ...
Monday, 20 July 20
OIL PRICE OF $40-43 PER BARREL MORE OR LESS BALANCED - NOVAK | TASS
The Russian Ministry of Energy considers the current oil price of $40-43 per barrel more or less balanced and does not expect price changes after t ...
Monday, 20 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 OPEN NORTH CHINA FIXING AN AUSTRALIAN ROUND IN THE LOW $10,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The capesize market showed some resistance this week to recent losses as all routes saw a small uptick in value to end the week. With ...
Friday, 17 July 20
MISC MALAYSIA ENTERS INTO PURCHASE AGREEMENTS AND TIME CHARTER PARTIES FOR SIX VLECS
MISC Berhad (MISC) has entered into Memorandum of Agreements (MOAs) with six indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries of Zhejiang Satellite Petrochem ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
HOW MEANINGFUL ARE SOME ESTIMATES FOR INDIA’S COAL CONSUMPTION DATA? - IEEFA
In recent years, BP's estimates for India have contained what appears to be a record of over-optimistic projections
BP’s a ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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