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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 20 July 20
COAL INDIA LAUNCHES SPECIAL CATEGORY OF E-AUCTION FOR COAL IMPORTERS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) on Friday launched a special category of e-auction for importers of coal. This is in line with the government’s declaration ...
Monday, 20 July 20
OIL PRICE OF $40-43 PER BARREL MORE OR LESS BALANCED - NOVAK | TASS
The Russian Ministry of Energy considers the current oil price of $40-43 per barrel more or less balanced and does not expect price changes after t ...
Monday, 20 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 OPEN NORTH CHINA FIXING AN AUSTRALIAN ROUND IN THE LOW $10,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The capesize market showed some resistance this week to recent losses as all routes saw a small uptick in value to end the week. With ...
Friday, 17 July 20
MISC MALAYSIA ENTERS INTO PURCHASE AGREEMENTS AND TIME CHARTER PARTIES FOR SIX VLECS
MISC Berhad (MISC) has entered into Memorandum of Agreements (MOAs) with six indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries of Zhejiang Satellite Petrochem ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
HOW MEANINGFUL ARE SOME ESTIMATES FOR INDIA’S COAL CONSUMPTION DATA? - IEEFA
In recent years, BP's estimates for India have contained what appears to be a record of over-optimistic projections
BP’s a ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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