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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 31 July 20
BOTSWANA PLANS MORE COAL-FIRED POWER AS AFRICAN SOLAR ACCELERATES - IEEFA
An African economic leader like Botswana should embrace solar to reduce subsidies and tariff hikes
As Sub-Saharan solar ambition has ...
Wednesday, 29 July 20
2019 U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FALLS TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1978 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal production totaled 706 million short tons (MMst), a 7% decrease from the 756 MMst mined in 2018. Last year’s production wa ...
Wednesday, 29 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The dry bulk sector is beginning to recover from reduced SnP activity recorded in the first quarter of 2020. The table below illustrates that appro ...
Tuesday, 28 July 20
DEUTSCHE BANK TO END GLOBAL BUSINESS ACTIVITIES IN COAL MINING BY 2025 - REUTERS
Deutsche Bank, in a revamp of its policies for fossil fuels, said on Monday that it would end business activities worldwide related to coal mining ...
Monday, 27 July 20
IEEFA ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 2020: COAL, LNG, PETROCHEMICAL SECTORS FACE POOR OUTLOOK AND UPHILL BATTLE FOR INVESTORS
Fossil fuel industries were becoming less financially attractive even before the global coronavirus pandemic
Three major fossil fuel ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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