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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 01 August 20
SHIP SHAPE - OUCH: FIS
Thursday afternoon saw a report that US GDP in Q2 shrank by 32.9%. Now this may have beaten expectations, but it’s a bit like saying that you ...
Saturday, 01 August 20
ASIA HOPE FOR LONG-TERM OIL DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Oil demand in Asia Pacific might be expected to plunge 1.8m barrels per day (bpd) this year, but there are still strong prospects for growth over t ...
Friday, 31 July 20
SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE CHEMICAL SHIPPING MARKET IF THE INDIA-CHINA DISPUTE ESCALATES - DREWRY
Due to the India-China dispute, the threat of deteriorating trade relations between the two countries has become real. Meanwhile, we expect freight ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANAMAX: THE PERIOD MARKET REMAINS QUIET WITH FEW FIXTURES REPORTED - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
After weeks of dropping rates, there are finally some resistance for the Capes. Pacific rounds improving to upper15,000s by the middle ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANDEMIC SENDING SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INDUSTRY TO EARLIER GRAVE - IEEFA
Could South Africa’s coal export industry, one of the largest in the world, be about to take a severe hit from the coronavirus?
...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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