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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 01 August 20
SHIP SHAPE - OUCH: FIS
Thursday afternoon saw a report that US GDP in Q2 shrank by 32.9%. Now this may have beaten expectations, but it’s a bit like saying that you ...
Saturday, 01 August 20
ASIA HOPE FOR LONG-TERM OIL DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Oil demand in Asia Pacific might be expected to plunge 1.8m barrels per day (bpd) this year, but there are still strong prospects for growth over t ...
Friday, 31 July 20
SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE CHEMICAL SHIPPING MARKET IF THE INDIA-CHINA DISPUTE ESCALATES - DREWRY
Due to the India-China dispute, the threat of deteriorating trade relations between the two countries has become real. Meanwhile, we expect freight ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANAMAX: THE PERIOD MARKET REMAINS QUIET WITH FEW FIXTURES REPORTED - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
After weeks of dropping rates, there are finally some resistance for the Capes. Pacific rounds improving to upper15,000s by the middle ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANDEMIC SENDING SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INDUSTRY TO EARLIER GRAVE - IEEFA
Could South Africa’s coal export industry, one of the largest in the world, be about to take a severe hit from the coronavirus?
...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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