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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 August 20
PEABODY'S $1.42 BILLION WRITE-DOWN CONCEDES COAL MINES HAVE LITTLE VALUE AND DIM FUTURE - IEEFA
Trouble at biggest mine in Powder River Basin speaks volumes about state of industry
Peabody Energy, the world’s largest priva ...
Thursday, 06 August 20
SUPRAMAX MARKET CONTINUED SIDEWAYS TREND, AND LITTLE INSPIRING NEWS APPEAR - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is presently a small correction in rates, but overall levels are up from previous week mainly due to increased demand in the Eas ...
Thursday, 06 August 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITING BIDS FOR MIN 3,600-MAX 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) inviting bids for 80,000 Tons (MT) Min 3,600~Max 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal f ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
NO NEW MINING LICENSES - A REMINDER TO GOVERNORS IN INDONESIA - SSEK
Indonesia’s acting Director General of Mining and Coal (“DGMC”) has issued a letter to the country’s provincial Governors t ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
AUGUST 2020 HBA HITTING ITS LOWEST LEVELS IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of August plunged 30.73% YoY, hitting its lowest levels in history and highlighting ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
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