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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and de ...
Tuesday, 04 August 20
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 900K MT OF MIN 5600 NCV COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 260,000 to 300,000 Tons (MT) min. ...
Tuesday, 04 August 20
THE WORLD’S FLEET OF COAL-FIRED POWER STATIONS HAS GOT SMALLER FOR THE FIRST TIME ON RECORD, WITH MORE CAPACITY RETIRED IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2020 THAN THE AMOUNT OPENED - IEA
This is according to the latest Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT) results by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), which we completed last month and report f ...
Monday, 03 August 20
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION, WHICH HAS DECLINED SINCE ITS 2007 PEAK, FELL TO ITS LOWEST POINT IN APRIL 2020 - EIA
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) most recent Monthly Energy Review, the United States consumed 6.5 quadrillion ...
Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Rati ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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