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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 August 20
THE COAL MARKET IN ITALY - ASSOCARBONI
Italy, which in 2019 reported a decrease in thermal coal imports, with a volume of 7,5 million tons (-32% compared to 11 million tons in 2018), whi ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 WILL DECREASE BY 29% FROM 2019 LEVELS TO 502 MMST - EIA
U.S. coal consumption, which dropped to its lowest point since April, totaled 95 MMst in the second quarter of 2020.
EIA expec ...
Tuesday, 11 August 20
BHP COAL ASSETS WORTH A BILLION LESS THAN JUST TWO YEARS AGO - IEEFA
Another global investor, the UK’s biggest public pension fund NEST, has withdrawn funds from BHP this week because the company is profiting & ...
Monday, 10 August 20
COAL IMPORT DROPS 43% IN JULY OWING TO HIGH STOCKPILE AT PITHEADS, PLANTS - PTI
“The market participants seem to have adopted a wait and watch approach and are currently looking for a direction. We do not expect to see an ...
Saturday, 08 August 20
GLOBAL COAL POWER PUZZLE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Global Energy Monitor’s latest Global Coal Plant Tracker has put another nail in the coffin for the coal-carrying fleet with its finding that ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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