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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 August 20
COAL INDIA TRADE UNIONS DEFER DAY-LONG STRIKE: PTI
The unions had decided to go on strike against the commercial mining and the proposed divestment or buyback of shares of Coal India Ltd (CIL).
...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
MISC MARKS ITS MAIDEN FORAY INTO MAJOR DEEP-WATER PROJECT IN LATIN AMERICA WITH MERO 3 FPSO
MISC Berhad (MISC) is pleased to announce its acceptance of Letter of Intent (LOI) from Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras) for the provisi ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS | INTERMODAL
Since the Covid-19 outbreak, governments and central banks around the globe have been using their ammunition and stimulus packages to keep their ec ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
INDIA SAW A SHARP DECLINE IN ENERGY COAL IMPORTS IN JANUARY - JUNE 2020; –27 PER CENT YOY - BHP
Energy coal prices were weak in the second half of financial year 2020, BHP says in its Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
Accordi ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN SUBDUED THIS FISCAL AMID WEAK DEMAND, HIGH INVENTORY - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Coal offtake is improving gradually as lockdown eases
Coal prices are expected to remain subdued to weak demand and high inventory l ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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