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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 18 August 20
BLACKBALLED: WILL COAL BOUNCE BACK FROM SLUMP OR IS IT TERMINAL? - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Even by the standards of this miserable year, 2020 has been a shocker for the global coal industry.
As the lockdown kicked in demand ...
Friday, 14 August 20
EIA: COAL PLANTS UNECONOMICAL IN MOST REGIONS - IEEFA
U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDIA SHOULD RECORD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS, REACHING A VOLUME OF 167 MILLION TONS BY THE END OF 2020 - ASSOCARBONI
Regarding 2020 thermal coal imports forecasts, Vietnam’s coal imports showed a very strong growth in the first half of 2020 and it is believe ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDONESIA REMAINS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD - ASSOCARBONI
According to the last Assocarboni data for 2019, Indonesia remains the largest exporter in the world. Thermal coal exports have in fact reached 456 ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
VIETNAM WAS THE PROTAGONIST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 - ASSOCARBONI
The latest Assocarboni data for 2019 also provide a detailed picture on the trend of the global coal import.
According to Assocarbon ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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