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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 21 August 20
BHP COMMITS TO SELLING ITS THERMAL COALMINES WITHIN TWO YEARS - THE GUARDIAN
Move follows pressure from investors but company stops short of full exit from coalmining
BHP has announced it plans to sell off its ...
Thursday, 20 August 20
MINER BHP CONFIRMS PLANS TO EXIT THERMAL COAL SECTOR - THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The head of mining giant BHP has laid out plans for a reshaping of its global operations by seeking to quit thermal coal mining, offload some cokin ...
Thursday, 20 August 20
LONDON RETAINS ARBITER CROWN - BALTIC EXCHANGE | HFW
Fears that the UK’s decision to leave the European Union would dent the reputation of the nation’s capital as the leader in maritime ar ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
U.S. COAL STOCKPILES STEADILY INCREASE AFTER REACHING LOWEST LEVEL IN A DECADE IN 2019 - EIA
After reaching their lowest level in more than a decade in March 2019, U.S. coal stockpiles steadily increased to 152 million tons in April 2020, r ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.26 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.92 points Monday, down 0.26 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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