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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 27 August 20
BANGLADESH POWER MINISTRY SEEKING AUTHORITY TO CANCEL 13,000 MW OF PROPOSED COAL-FIRED CAPACITY - BUSINESS STANDARD
In a bid to move away from dirty energy, the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources is seeking the prime minister’s approval to conv ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
ASIAN COAL PRICES LIKELY TO REMAIN DEPRESSED SAY TRADERS, ANALYSTS - REUTERS
Asian coal prices, which have fallen around 25% this year as power demand slumped due to the coronavirus outbreak, are unlikely to move higher befo ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
WORLD COAL EXPORTS: INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HAVE COME UNDER PRESSURE AS THERMAL COAL PRICES WEAKEN - REPORT
Indonesia’s exports to decline sharply from record highs
Indonesia is the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, sellin ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country&rsqu ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
PENDING SOUTH KOREA LEGISLATION COULD FORCE HALT TO COUNTRY’S COAL PLANT EXPORT DEALS - KOREA ECONOMIC DAILY
South Korea’s parliament looks set to pass new legislation to ban financing on foreign coal power projects, putting all overseas coal-fired p ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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