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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 30 August 20
PANAMAX - THIS WEEK THE DEMAND HAS PICKED UP, BUT THE TONNAGE LIST IS INCREASING DAY BY DAY - FEARNLEYS
Cape Size
More or less flat from previous week, with cape rates moving from US$ 19,500 to 18,900 on average. West Australia however being more ...
Saturday, 29 August 20
COAL INDIA'S FUEL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS ABOUT 20% IN APR-JUL: PTI
State-owned Coal India”s fuel supply to the power sector registered a decline of 19.5 per cent to 126.30 million tonnes (MT) in the April-Jul ...
Saturday, 29 August 20
SOUTH KOREAN BROKERAGE FIRM KOREA INVESTMENT & SECURITIES TO STOP ALL COAL BUSINESS - KOREA HERALD
South Korean brokerage firm Korea Investment & Securities has decided to stop its investments in coal, in line with the Moon Jae-in administrat ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 985,000 TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR NOVEMBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 985,000 ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS SET REGION-WIDE RENEWABLE ENERGY GOAL OF 23 PERCENT BY 2025 - ASEAN POST
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has set an ambitious target of securing 23 percent of its primary energy from renewable so ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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