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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 September 20
IN A DEEPENING DEBT HOLE OF $34 BILLION, INDONESIA’S PLN MUST STOP DIGGING - IEEFA
The utility has added IDR100 trillion in debt annually for the last five years
Utilities globally started changing the way they do business ye ...
Friday, 04 September 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN MIN 5,700 NCV COAL FOR NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, has issued an International tender for 260,000 MT Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal November, 2020 loading. Acc ...
Thursday, 03 September 20
BRINGING SERVICES OF FTCCI CLOSER TO THE EXPORTERS AT GMR AIR CARGO COMPLEX AT SHAMSHABAD
Press Release: “FTCCI Trade Facilitation Services at your doorstep now” says J.S. Chandrashekar, IRS., Principal Commissioner of Custom ...
Thursday, 03 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 02 September 20
COAL PRODUCTION FALLS 7% IN APR-AUG; OFF TAKE DIPS 13.4% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
In the month of August coal off take also increased 9.3% y-o-y to 44.34 MT as compared with 40.57 MT in the same period last year.
C ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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