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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 September 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 TO BE 511 MMST, 28 PER CENT LOWER THAN IN 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 511 million short tons (MMst), 194 MMst (28%) lower than in 2019. Mitigation efforts related t ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA'S DEMAND KEEPING THE DRY BULK MARKET GOING - PETER SAND | BIMCO
Overview
An impressive recovery in Chinese dry bulk imports has protected the industry from the effects of falling demand in the rest of the wo ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
TANKER SHIPPING: FREIGHT RATES BACK AT LOSS-MAKING LEVELS AFTER 12 VERY PROFITABLE MONTHS - BIMCO
Overview
A stunningly strong 12 months for the tanker shipping industry is now being replaced by lower freight rates, as lower oil product ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS STUMBLE IN AUGUST, RAISING RISK OF SLOW RECOVERY - REFINITIV | BANCHERO COSTA
After posting a mild recovery in July, India's coal imports have stumbled in August as the South Asian nation battles to restart it ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
THE FIRST 8 MONTHS OF 2020, INDONESIA EXPORTED 217.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL BASED ON REFINITIV - BANCHERO COSTA
The coal market has been hit by a weaker global economy as a result of COVID-19 pandemic and falling industrial electricity demand ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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