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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 28 September 20
NEW LNG PROJECTS - ALL DRESSED UP AND NO PLACE TO GO - WOOD MACKENZIE
It was meant to be another boom year. After a record 70 mmtpa of new LNG capacity was sanctioned in 2019, at least as much capacity was lined up fo ...
Thursday, 24 September 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO INDIA FIXING AROUND US$13,000 - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Over the last week the iron ore segment from Brazil to China has picked up, and we see freight rates up USD 2 (12%) week on week Fearnleys ...
Thursday, 24 September 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER TO BUY 1.92 MILLION TONS OF 4,300-4,700 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, has issued an International tender for 640,000 MT 4,300-4,700 kcal/kg NCV coal per year.
...
Wednesday, 23 September 20
VIETNAM'S NEW POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN MUST OPTIMIZE RENEWABLES AND AVOID FOSSIL FUEL LOCK-IN: IEEFA
EVN’s financial constraints leaves the utility with little room for error
Implementing Vietnam’s soon-to-be-launched next Power De ...
Wednesday, 23 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Undoubtedly, this year (ongoing) will never be forgotten because in a matter of months it has managed to severely affect and shape our day to day p ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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