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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the p ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.73 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.91 points Monday, up 0.73 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bul ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES' EARNINGS TO WEAKEN IN 2H20 - FITCH RATINGS
Rated Indonesian coal miners and contractors will have weaker operating and financial performances in the second half of 2020 than in the first, sa ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO DROP BY 10.5% IN 2020, SAYS MINISTRY - TASS
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry projects a 10.5% decrease in coal production in the country in 2020 compared with last year to 395 mln ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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