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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 October 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECREASE BY 26 PERCENT IN 2020 COMPARED TO 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 525 million short tons (MMst), compared with 705 MMst in 2019, a 26% decrease.
COVID-19 a ...
Wednesday, 07 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The challenges brought forward in 2020 proved to be very different from what we could have ever imagined. Together with placing a significant strai ...
Tuesday, 06 October 20
KOSPO TO IMPORT 80,000 MT OF 3,800 NCV COAL FOR 2H NOV
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 MT Min.3800 kcal/kg NCV coal 2H November, 2020 l ...
Friday, 02 October 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISE AFTER HISTORIC CRASH TO US$ 49.42
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of October Rise to US$ 51.00 after historic crash to US$ 49.42 in September 2020.
...
Friday, 02 October 20
SRI LANKA MUST LEARN LESSONS FROM AROUND ASIA TO AVOID FURTHER ELECTRICITY CRISES - IEEFA
Overcommitment to fossil-fuelled power generation is leading to excess capacity and rising capacity payments, subsidies, and tariffs around the con ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
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