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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 October 20
INDIA: THE COMMERCIALISATION OF COAL BLOCKS WILL BENEFIT THE ECONOMY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
As the government of India receives 76 bids for 23 coal mines against the 38 up on auction, what does this commercialisation of coal block allocati ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The second wave of COVID-19 is now a reality; offices are closing again, and stricter rules and regulations are being implemented in public spaces. ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.82 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.49 points Monday, up 0.82 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
BIMCO 'SHIPLEASE' TERM SHEET - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The ever-growing importance of sale and leaseback transactions as an alternative to financing ships by way of loan, makes ...
Friday, 16 October 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF OF K GENCO'S INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 715,000 MT MIN. 5,700 NAR COAL FOR DECEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 715,000& ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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