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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 October 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RALLY ON REPORTED BAN ON AUSTRALIA CARGOES - REUTERS
Dalian coking coal futures rallied for a sixth straight session on Tuesday after reports surfaced that China had stopped buying coal from Australia ...
Wednesday, 14 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tanker market has experienced severe freight rate and asset value declines over the past 5 months. A potential market upturn may arise in the c ...
Friday, 09 October 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT, BUT RECOVERY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
India’s coal imports, depressed by the impact of coronavirus this year, regained ground in September, but in an uneven uptick – shipmen ...
Thursday, 08 October 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FROM INDONESIA DECLINED 16.4% Y-O-Y, TO 80.2 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports boomed in 2019, surprising many who had expected the government would clamp down strictly on shipments.
...
Thursday, 08 October 20
GLIMMER OF LIGHT FOR COAL, BUT SHORT TERM - FNARENA
Is coal on the rebound? Demand appears stronger and supply reductions have underpinned a tightening market. Certainly, the Newcastle thermal coal p ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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