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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 09 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The uneventful summer lull which is coming to an end soon has left its stigma on the newbuilding market, which has already been devastated by the g ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
INDIA WON'T KICK ITS COAL HABIT SO EASILY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
India has traditionally considered itself lucky to have been endowed with abundant coal reserves, which it has sought to use to meet its energy nee ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
FINANCING COMPLETE FOR 900MW FIFTH PHASE OF MASSIVE DUBAI SOLAR PARK: ARABIAN BUSINESS
Saudi-based ACWA Power on Thursday announced it has completed the signing of all financing agreements for the fifth phase of the Mohammed bin Rashi ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
POLISH COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO FALL BY 7 MLN TONNES NEXT YEAR: MINISTER - REUTERS
Poland’s demand for coal is expected to fall by around 7 million tonnes next year, or more than 10% of annual hard coal production, after a d ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
PAKISTAN'S NEW 27-YEAR POWER PLAN RISKS LOCKING IN LONG-TERM OVERCAPACITY, LEAVING IMPORTED COAL AND LNG PLANTS STRANDED - IEEFA
Wind and solar, the country’s cheapest source of new generation, also overlooked
Pakistan risks locking itself into building m ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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