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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 25 August 20
INDIA'S IMPORTS FALL AS LOCKDOWNS IMPACT THE POWER AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS - REPORT
India is the world’s second largest thermal coal consumer and importer, importing an estimated 211 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019.&nb ...
Monday, 24 August 20
A COMBINATION OF DEVELOPMENTS DROVE THE FALLOFF COAL PRICES - CHIEF ECONOMIST’ OFFICE, AUSTRALIA
China, rising domestic production combined with subdued power demand;
India, a lockdown coupled with government directives that fav ...
Monday, 24 August 20
AUSTRALIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM AN ESTIMATED $20 BILLION IN 2019-20 TO $16 BILLION IN 2020-21: REPORT
Thermal coal spot prices have fallen sharply as the impact of COVID-19 drives a contraction in seaborne trade for only the second time this century ...
Saturday, 22 August 20
REPORT SEES INDIA’S RELIANCE ON THERMAL POWER DROPPING TO 50% IN 2021, 43% IN 2026 - ET ENERGY | IEEFA
India’s dependence on thermal power will reduce to 50 per cent by 2021-22 and 43 per cent by 2026-27 on the back of renewable energy (RE) cap ...
Friday, 21 August 20
323 MILLION ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL BE ON THE ROADS BY 2040 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to reach 45 million units per year by 2040, with a total global EV stock of 323 million, according to new ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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