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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 19 June 20
INDIA'S COAL CONSUMPTION GROWTH IN 2019 SLOWEST SINCE 2001: BP STATS REVIEW - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Growth in global energy markets slowed in 2019 in line with weaker economic growth, according to the bp Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. Th ...
Friday, 19 June 20
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 1,050,000 MT OF MIN 5300 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korera Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1,050k MT Min.5,300 kcal/kg NCV coal for t ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: GOVT'S PLAN TO CUT COAL IMPORT GOES FOR A TOSS AS FY20 BREAKS LOGISTICS CHAIN; LOCAL OUTPUT STAGNANT - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Weak logistics support and disrupted supply chain towards the end of the last financial year 2019-20 hit the government’s plan to cut coal im ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS TO OPERATE BELOW 53% CAPACITY IN FY21 AS POWER DEMAND DIPS - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Plant Load Factor (PLF) of thermal power stations across the country is projected to dip below 53 per cent in this fiscal. Muted power demand f ...
Wednesday, 17 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After experiencing record earnings during the first half of the year, the focus of headlines concerning the tanker market has shifted from the deve ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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