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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 11 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitc ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast to the economic projections of the past two years for the first half of 2020, the oil & gas industry and those involved in it faced ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.19 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.71 points Monday, down 0.19 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 09 June 20
BUNKER SUPPLY CONTRACTS - KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE BUYER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Regardless of whether a buyer purchases fuel directly from physical suppliers or via brokers or traders and whether sale ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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