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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 09 June 20
INDIA: COAL IMPORT DROPS BY 20% TO NEARLY 19 MILLION TONNES IN MAY, SAYS REPORT - HINDUSTAN TIMES
The country’s coal import dropped by 20 per cent to 18.93 million tonnes (MT) last month, industry data showed.
The government ...
Monday, 08 June 20
WOOD MACKENZIE: THE INDISPENSABLE OPEC+
Rumours of “the death of OPEC” have been circulating for almost as long as the organisation has existed. Just three years after the car ...
Monday, 08 June 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FALL NEARLY 20% IN MAY EVEN AS DEMAND RISES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports in May fell nearly 20% compared with a year earlier even as demand recovered at power plants and industrial users, custo ...
Monday, 08 June 20
JUNE 2020 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HIT US$ 52.98 A TON, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AT LEAST AUGUST 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Sunday, 07 June 20
A SCRUBBER FITTED 61,000 ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES TRIP VIA SOUTH AFRICA REDELIVERY VIETNAM AT $9,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The small flicker of hope at the beginning of this week has kindled a small fire under the Capesize market. At a paltry $3369 from the ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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