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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 06 June 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO INVITED COAL BIDS FOR MIN 5600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 270,000 Tons (MT) min. 5600 NCV co ...
Friday, 05 June 20
COAL INDIA ESTIMATES PRODUCTION GROWTH BY OVERBURDEN REMOVAL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
PSU miner Coal India (CIL) has now limited mining only to Overburden Removal (OBR) with falling demand of coal. The mining behemoth is now keeping ...
Friday, 05 June 20
U.S. SANCTIONS COMPLIANCE GUIDANCE RELEASED FOR THE GLOBAL MARITIME, ENERGY AND METALS SECTORS - AKIN GUMP
Key Points
On May 14, 2020, OFAC, the Department of State and the U.S. Coast Guard jointly released guidance for persons involved in the ma ...
Friday, 05 June 20
IN THE FIRST 5 MONTHS OF 2020 AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 6.8 MLN TONNES TO VIETNAM - BANCHERO COSTA
In the first 5 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -8% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Ref ...
Thursday, 04 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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Showing 926 to 930 news of total 6871 |
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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