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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 09 June 20
INDIA: COAL IMPORT DROPS BY 20% TO NEARLY 19 MILLION TONNES IN MAY, SAYS REPORT - HINDUSTAN TIMES
The country’s coal import dropped by 20 per cent to 18.93 million tonnes (MT) last month, industry data showed.
The government ...
Monday, 08 June 20
WOOD MACKENZIE: THE INDISPENSABLE OPEC+
Rumours of “the death of OPEC” have been circulating for almost as long as the organisation has existed. Just three years after the car ...
Monday, 08 June 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FALL NEARLY 20% IN MAY EVEN AS DEMAND RISES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports in May fell nearly 20% compared with a year earlier even as demand recovered at power plants and industrial users, custo ...
Monday, 08 June 20
JUNE 2020 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HIT US$ 52.98 A TON, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AT LEAST AUGUST 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Sunday, 07 June 20
A SCRUBBER FITTED 61,000 ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES TRIP VIA SOUTH AFRICA REDELIVERY VIETNAM AT $9,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The small flicker of hope at the beginning of this week has kindled a small fire under the Capesize market. At a paltry $3369 from the ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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