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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 11 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitc ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast to the economic projections of the past two years for the first half of 2020, the oil & gas industry and those involved in it faced ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.19 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.71 points Monday, down 0.19 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 09 June 20
BUNKER SUPPLY CONTRACTS - KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE BUYER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Regardless of whether a buyer purchases fuel directly from physical suppliers or via brokers or traders and whether sale ...
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Showing 916 to 920 news of total 6871 |
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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