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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 11 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitc ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast to the economic projections of the past two years for the first half of 2020, the oil & gas industry and those involved in it faced ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.19 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.71 points Monday, down 0.19 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 09 June 20
BUNKER SUPPLY CONTRACTS - KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE BUYER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Regardless of whether a buyer purchases fuel directly from physical suppliers or via brokers or traders and whether sale ...
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Showing 916 to 920 news of total 6871 |
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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