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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 17 June 20
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITED 80000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR AUGUST 1H, 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) Min 4,200 kcal/kg - Max. ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLUMP: WHAT WILL IT MEAN FOR METALS AND MINING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Back before coronavirus knocked “normal” out cold, the key issues for miners were sub-investment prices, rising requirements for ESG an ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.58 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.43 points Monday, up 0.58 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
HIGHER IRON ORE PRICES OFFSET CORONAVIRUS-DRIVEN PRODUCTION RISK - FITCH RATINGS
Lower iron ore production in Brazil, resulting from rising coronavirus infections, should only marginally affect the cash flow of Vale and other gl ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
SHALE SHOCKED - WOOD MACKENZIE
Capturing shut-ins in real time
Oil markets are searching for balance as the world reflects on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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