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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 17 June 20
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITED 80000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR AUGUST 1H, 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) Min 4,200 kcal/kg - Max. ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLUMP: WHAT WILL IT MEAN FOR METALS AND MINING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Back before coronavirus knocked “normal” out cold, the key issues for miners were sub-investment prices, rising requirements for ESG an ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.58 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.43 points Monday, up 0.58 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
HIGHER IRON ORE PRICES OFFSET CORONAVIRUS-DRIVEN PRODUCTION RISK - FITCH RATINGS
Lower iron ore production in Brazil, resulting from rising coronavirus infections, should only marginally affect the cash flow of Vale and other gl ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
SHALE SHOCKED - WOOD MACKENZIE
Capturing shut-ins in real time
Oil markets are searching for balance as the world reflects on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
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Showing 906 to 910 news of total 6871 |
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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