We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 24 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The World Bank estimates that the global economy will fall by 5.2% this year, underlining that the Covid-19 pandemic has had rapid and massive cons ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
COVID-19 COULD CAUSE A BOOM IN COAL POWER - RYSTAD ENERGY | OILPRICE
COVID-19 has not only impacted the energy industry’s revenues but also its infrastructure development.
The delay of new natural gas ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 0.9 PCT IN JANUARY-MAY: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 0.9 percent year on year to 1.47 billion tonnes in the first five months of this year, official data showed.
& ...
Monday, 22 June 20
KAMSARMAX TYPES REGULARLY HIT THE $9,000 PER DAY LEVEL FOR INDONESIAN COAL RUN TO CHINA, BALTIC BRIEFING SAYS
Capesize
The Capesize market trajectory this week has been one of the steepest rallies the sector has experienced. Opening at $12,410, the sect ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
NO ESCAPING GLOBAL TRADE SLUMP - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Those hoping for a decent recovery in trade in the second half of the year should prepare for disappointment.
New data from the Unit ...
|
|
|
Showing 896 to 900 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
