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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 19 June 20
INDIA'S COAL CONSUMPTION GROWTH IN 2019 SLOWEST SINCE 2001: BP STATS REVIEW - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Growth in global energy markets slowed in 2019 in line with weaker economic growth, according to the bp Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. Th ...
Friday, 19 June 20
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 1,050,000 MT OF MIN 5300 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korera Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1,050k MT Min.5,300 kcal/kg NCV coal for t ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: GOVT'S PLAN TO CUT COAL IMPORT GOES FOR A TOSS AS FY20 BREAKS LOGISTICS CHAIN; LOCAL OUTPUT STAGNANT - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Weak logistics support and disrupted supply chain towards the end of the last financial year 2019-20 hit the government’s plan to cut coal im ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS TO OPERATE BELOW 53% CAPACITY IN FY21 AS POWER DEMAND DIPS - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Plant Load Factor (PLF) of thermal power stations across the country is projected to dip below 53 per cent in this fiscal. Muted power demand f ...
Wednesday, 17 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After experiencing record earnings during the first half of the year, the focus of headlines concerning the tanker market has shifted from the deve ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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