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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in th ...
Monday, 29 June 20
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000 FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA EAST COAST INDIA, REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As the halfway mark of 2020 arrives, the capesize market is making new highs for the year. From persistent lows earlier caused by a ba ...
Saturday, 27 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 26 June 20
WHAT TODAY'S BAILOUTS CAN DO FOR TOMORROW'S ECONOMIES - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
The COVID-19 crisis provides an opportunity for governments to build fairer, more sustainable and more resilient economies.
Governments a ...
Thursday, 25 June 20
ALL YOU WANT TO KNOW ABOUT COAL MINE AUCTIONS - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi threw open the auction of 41 coal blocks for commercial mining. The decision, which was part of the announc ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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