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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in th ...
Monday, 29 June 20
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000 FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA EAST COAST INDIA, REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As the halfway mark of 2020 arrives, the capesize market is making new highs for the year. From persistent lows earlier caused by a ba ...
Saturday, 27 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 26 June 20
WHAT TODAY'S BAILOUTS CAN DO FOR TOMORROW'S ECONOMIES - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
The COVID-19 crisis provides an opportunity for governments to build fairer, more sustainable and more resilient economies.
Governments a ...
Thursday, 25 June 20
ALL YOU WANT TO KNOW ABOUT COAL MINE AUCTIONS - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi threw open the auction of 41 coal blocks for commercial mining. The decision, which was part of the announc ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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