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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 07 July 20
WHAT DOES THE PATHWAY TO A NET-ZERO ECONOMY LOOK LIKE FOR MINERS? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wind, solar, electric vehicles, stationary storage and transmission are all central to achieving the Paris Agreement decarbonisation goals.
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Monday, 06 July 20
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN FREE FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 06 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-DWT FIXING DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA RE-DELIVERY WEST INDIA IN THE LOW $4,000S
Capesize
The Capesize market continues to go from strength to strength, as rates reach highs not seen since September last year. The rally is p ...
Thursday, 02 July 20
PRIVATE COAL MINING MAY SEE WEAK INVESTOR SENTIMENT: ICRA - LIVEMINT
The prospects of commercial coal mining in India may be dimmer than initially expected because of the expected shift in India’s energy mix fr ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
THERMAL COAL OPTIONS TRADING LAUNCHED IN CHINA'S ZHENGZHOU - XINHUA
Thermal coal options started trading on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) in central China’s Henan Province Tuesday.
It i ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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