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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 07 July 20
WHAT DOES THE PATHWAY TO A NET-ZERO ECONOMY LOOK LIKE FOR MINERS? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wind, solar, electric vehicles, stationary storage and transmission are all central to achieving the Paris Agreement decarbonisation goals.
&nb ...
Monday, 06 July 20
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN FREE FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 06 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-DWT FIXING DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA RE-DELIVERY WEST INDIA IN THE LOW $4,000S
Capesize
The Capesize market continues to go from strength to strength, as rates reach highs not seen since September last year. The rally is p ...
Thursday, 02 July 20
PRIVATE COAL MINING MAY SEE WEAK INVESTOR SENTIMENT: ICRA - LIVEMINT
The prospects of commercial coal mining in India may be dimmer than initially expected because of the expected shift in India’s energy mix fr ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
THERMAL COAL OPTIONS TRADING LAUNCHED IN CHINA'S ZHENGZHOU - XINHUA
Thermal coal options started trading on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) in central China’s Henan Province Tuesday.
It i ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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