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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 07 July 20
WHAT DOES THE PATHWAY TO A NET-ZERO ECONOMY LOOK LIKE FOR MINERS? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wind, solar, electric vehicles, stationary storage and transmission are all central to achieving the Paris Agreement decarbonisation goals.
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Monday, 06 July 20
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN FREE FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 06 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-DWT FIXING DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA RE-DELIVERY WEST INDIA IN THE LOW $4,000S
Capesize
The Capesize market continues to go from strength to strength, as rates reach highs not seen since September last year. The rally is p ...
Thursday, 02 July 20
PRIVATE COAL MINING MAY SEE WEAK INVESTOR SENTIMENT: ICRA - LIVEMINT
The prospects of commercial coal mining in India may be dimmer than initially expected because of the expected shift in India’s energy mix fr ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
THERMAL COAL OPTIONS TRADING LAUNCHED IN CHINA'S ZHENGZHOU - XINHUA
Thermal coal options started trading on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) in central China’s Henan Province Tuesday.
It i ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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