We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 10 July 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 10 July 20
GLOBAL SHIPPING EARNINGS FORECAST CUT AS SUPPLY SET TO OUTSTRIP DEMAND - MOODY'S
EBITDA forecast worsens, keeping outlook negative. We now expect the aggregate EBITDA of rated shipping companies to fall by around 16%-18% in 2020 ...
Friday, 10 July 20
SLOW RECOVERY IN TANKER RATES TO WEIGH ON BUANA LINTAS LAUTAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that international tanker rates are likely improve after their sharp fall since May 2020, albeit at a slow pace. The weaknes ...
Wednesday, 08 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the previous month, the dry bulk market witnessed an impressive increase in the BDI index that has reached 1800 points from 500 with a clear ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
COAL INDIA WORKERS STRIKE CUTS OUTPUT BY 56%: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
A strike at Coal India Ltd cut production by 56% in the three days ending July 4 as workers oppose opening up coal mining to the private sector, a ...
|
|
|
Showing 876 to 880 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
|
| |
| |
|
