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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 15 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS FALL 6.7% Y/Y ON PORT CURBS - REUTERS
China’s coal imports dropped 6.7% in June from the same period last year, as stringent import restrictions at ports impeded purchases by trad ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraint ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.75 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 126.01 points Monday, up 0.75 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
TURKEY - A CASE OF UNDECLARED BUNKER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Undeclared/excess bunkers can be considered a criminal act by Turkish customs officials with the ship's crew being ac ...
Monday, 13 July 20
PANAMAX: A TUMULTUOUS WEEK IN THE PANAMAX MARKET ENSURED ALL MARKETS GAINED VALUE ON THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week witnessed the dreaded correction in the Capesize market, with the time charter average shedding almost 18 per cent to close ...
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Showing 871 to 875 news of total 6871 |
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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