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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 15 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS FALL 6.7% Y/Y ON PORT CURBS - REUTERS
China’s coal imports dropped 6.7% in June from the same period last year, as stringent import restrictions at ports impeded purchases by trad ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraint ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.75 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 126.01 points Monday, up 0.75 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
TURKEY - A CASE OF UNDECLARED BUNKER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Undeclared/excess bunkers can be considered a criminal act by Turkish customs officials with the ship's crew being ac ...
Monday, 13 July 20
PANAMAX: A TUMULTUOUS WEEK IN THE PANAMAX MARKET ENSURED ALL MARKETS GAINED VALUE ON THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week witnessed the dreaded correction in the Capesize market, with the time charter average shedding almost 18 per cent to close ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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