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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 24 July 20
IPA: THERMAL COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS DECLINE 35 PC TO 17.71 MT IN APR TO JUNE - ECONOMIC TIMES
These ports had handled 27.13 MT of thermal coal and 14.95 MT of coking coal in the April-June period of the previous financial year
...
Thursday, 23 July 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 1.36 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 1,360,00 ...
Wednesday, 22 July 20
CIL'S COAL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 21% TO 93.5 MT IN APR-JUN QUARTER - PTI
The supply of coal by state-owned Coal India Ltd to the power sector fell 21.7 percent to 93.5 million tonnes (MT) in the first quarter of the ongo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 2.520 MILLION MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO), has issued an international tender for total 840,000 of Bituminous Coal to be used at Bo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL OUTPUT FALLS 1.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR OVER ILLEGAL MINING CHECKS - REUTERS
China’s coal output dropped 1.2% in June on the year to 330 million tonnes, official data showed, as major coal mining areas cracked down on ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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