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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 31 July 20
BOTSWANA PLANS MORE COAL-FIRED POWER AS AFRICAN SOLAR ACCELERATES - IEEFA
An African economic leader like Botswana should embrace solar to reduce subsidies and tariff hikes
As Sub-Saharan solar ambition has ...
Wednesday, 29 July 20
2019 U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FALLS TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1978 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal production totaled 706 million short tons (MMst), a 7% decrease from the 756 MMst mined in 2018. Last year’s production wa ...
Wednesday, 29 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The dry bulk sector is beginning to recover from reduced SnP activity recorded in the first quarter of 2020. The table below illustrates that appro ...
Tuesday, 28 July 20
DEUTSCHE BANK TO END GLOBAL BUSINESS ACTIVITIES IN COAL MINING BY 2025 - REUTERS
Deutsche Bank, in a revamp of its policies for fossil fuels, said on Monday that it would end business activities worldwide related to coal mining ...
Monday, 27 July 20
IEEFA ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 2020: COAL, LNG, PETROCHEMICAL SECTORS FACE POOR OUTLOOK AND UPHILL BATTLE FOR INVESTORS
Fossil fuel industries were becoming less financially attractive even before the global coronavirus pandemic
Three major fossil fuel ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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