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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 01 July 20
COLOMBIA'S COAL EXPORT VOLUMES HAVE STEADILY DECLINED IN RECENT YEARS - BANCHERO COSTA
Colombia is the world’s fifth largest seaborne exporter of coal, coming after Australia, Indonesia, Russia and the USA.
Export ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was beginning of 2020 – close to 6 months from now – when we first experienced the huge impact of the COVID 19 outbreak on Ship Repa ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL AT THE MERCY OF THE DRAGON AND TIGER - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
Coal sector analysts have been busy in recent months mapping the negative impact of low coal prices from the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesian coal c ...
Monday, 29 June 20
FALLING DEMAND IN CHINA AND INDIA SIGNAL TOUGH TIMES AHEAD FOR INDONESIAN EXPORTS - GHEE PEH | EEFA
Assessing the Impact on Indonesian Coal Companies
The bad news for Indonesia’s coal companies is that they are likely to have ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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