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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 14 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL WAS STILL IN DEMAND; A 52,000-DWT SUPRAMAX FIXING DELIVERY CJK FOR A ROUND VOYAGE VIA INDONESIA AT $6,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made new highs for the year this week after strong iron ore demand to the far east continued to develop in the mar ...
Friday, 12 June 20
CHINA CURBS COAL IMPORTS AFTER 5 MONTHS OF RECORD INFLOWS - SOURCES: REUTERS
China has stepped up customs checks for coal imports, leading to lengthy processing delays at ports, four sources familiar with the matter said, as ...
Friday, 12 June 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED SET FOR MARKETING DRIVE TO CREATE DEMAND - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
State-run miner Coal India (CIL), which is primarily focused on supplying coal to the power sector, is now reorienting its marketing to create dema ...
Friday, 12 June 20
MOODY'S REVISES BRENT OIL PRICE OUTLOOK TO $35/BARREL IN 2020 - TASS
Low oil prices are likely to exert the highest pressure on Iraq, Oman and Kuwait due to the limited space for the fiscal policy pursuit and higher ...
Thursday, 11 June 20
JAN-MAY, INDONESIA SHIPPED 175.15 MILLION TONS OF COAL TO ITS OVERSEAS BUYERS
Indonesia's coal production for the first 5 months of this year have reached 228 million tons. January – May 2020, Indonesia shipped US$ ...
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Showing 911 to 915 news of total 6871 |
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- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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