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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 04 June 20
DON'T FORGET THE REAL PURPOSE OF RISK ASSESSMENTS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
When doing a risk assessment, we often overcomplicate it and forget its real purpose.
Rather than ensuring that crew ...
Wednesday, 03 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Once again shipping is about to venture into uncharted waters and before the challenges of the past decade are forgotten, shipowners will have to o ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
KOSPO LOOKING FOR 80000 MT OF 4200 NCV COAL FOR JULY
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) 4200 NCV coal for 12 - 21, July ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUMI RESOURCES Q1 OUTPUT UP 5% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s largest coal miner Bumi Resources posted a 5% increase in first-quarter output at 20.8 million tonnes, the company said in a stat ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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