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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 02 June 20
THE HISTORIC DECLINE OF US COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
The first commercial power plant in the US was Thomas Edison’s coal-fired Pearl Street station in lower Manhattan, which started operating in ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
COAL INDIA'S MAY SALES DRIVEN SHARPLY LOWER BY SLUMP IN POWER DEMAND - REUTER
Coal India’s sales fell 23.3% in May as utilities refrained from purchases amid record stockpiles and tepid demand because of a nationwide lo ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
TUAH TURANGGA AGUNG RECORDED 4.54 MILLION TONS OF COAL SALES IN THE FIRST FOUR MONTHS OF 2020
PT United Tractors Tbk through its subsidiary, PT Tuah Turangga Agung recorded 4.54 million tons of coal sales in the first four months of 2020, up ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
SOURING SINO-AUSTRALIA TRADE RELATIONS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Cooling relations between the commodity powerhouses of China and Australia may point to trade troubles ahead when the world emerges from the Covid- ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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