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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. Th ...
Thursday, 14 May 20
NEW COVID-19 GUIDELINES FOCUS ON SAFE INTERFACE BETWEEN SHIP AND SHORE STAFF - GARD
At a time when the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the global population, it is important that ships’ crew and port workers protect each other ...
Wednesday, 13 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.4 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.93 points Monday, down 0.4 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chin ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
IN THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF 2020, SOUTH KOREA IMPORTED 46.6 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL BY SEA, A NET DECLINE OF 14.1% YOY - BC
South Korea is certainly one of the countries which has handled better the current Covid-19 crisis. In the first week of May 2020, new cases of ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
OIL MARKET TURBULENCE PIVOTS FOCUS ON FLOATING STORAGE TECHNICAL NEEDS - LLOYD'S REGISTER
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negative oil prices and off-the-scale volatility in crude markets are positive for floating storage, as the next chapter ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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