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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. Th ...
Thursday, 14 May 20
NEW COVID-19 GUIDELINES FOCUS ON SAFE INTERFACE BETWEEN SHIP AND SHORE STAFF - GARD
At a time when the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the global population, it is important that ships’ crew and port workers protect each other ...
Wednesday, 13 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.4 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.93 points Monday, down 0.4 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chin ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
IN THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF 2020, SOUTH KOREA IMPORTED 46.6 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL BY SEA, A NET DECLINE OF 14.1% YOY - BC
South Korea is certainly one of the countries which has handled better the current Covid-19 crisis. In the first week of May 2020, new cases of ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
OIL MARKET TURBULENCE PIVOTS FOCUS ON FLOATING STORAGE TECHNICAL NEEDS - LLOYD'S REGISTER
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negative oil prices and off-the-scale volatility in crude markets are positive for floating storage, as the next chapter ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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