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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Saturday, 09 May 20
ANGLO AMERICAN CONSIDERS SPINNING OFF SOUTH AFRICAN COAL OPERATIONS - REUTERS
Diversified miner Anglo American said on Thursday it prefers unbundling and listing its thermal coal operations in South Africa on the Johannesburg ...
Friday, 08 May 20
THE COLLAPSE OF THE OIL AND BUNKER FUEL MARKETS IN EARLY 2020 - PETER SAND
The sulphur regulation from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that came into force on 1 January 2020 took the centre stage in the shipp ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IEEFA UPDATE: THE OUTLOOK FOR THERMAL COAL IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA
Seven headwinds are building to sustained growth in coal in Asia
The medium term outlook for thermal coal in Southeast Asia is posit ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IMO 2020: BUNKER CLAIMS HANDLING GUIDE FOR A NEW DECADE - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
IMO 2020 is the term generally used to describe the following regulations under Annex VI of the International Convention ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
CRUDE OIL TANKER EARNINGS DROP 68% IN NINE DAYS - BIMCO
Crude oil tanker earnings have come down sharply in recent weeks with Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) earnings from the Middle East Gulf to China d ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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