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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Saturday, 09 May 20
ANGLO AMERICAN CONSIDERS SPINNING OFF SOUTH AFRICAN COAL OPERATIONS - REUTERS
Diversified miner Anglo American said on Thursday it prefers unbundling and listing its thermal coal operations in South Africa on the Johannesburg ...
Friday, 08 May 20
THE COLLAPSE OF THE OIL AND BUNKER FUEL MARKETS IN EARLY 2020 - PETER SAND
The sulphur regulation from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that came into force on 1 January 2020 took the centre stage in the shipp ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IEEFA UPDATE: THE OUTLOOK FOR THERMAL COAL IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA
Seven headwinds are building to sustained growth in coal in Asia
The medium term outlook for thermal coal in Southeast Asia is posit ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IMO 2020: BUNKER CLAIMS HANDLING GUIDE FOR A NEW DECADE - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
IMO 2020 is the term generally used to describe the following regulations under Annex VI of the International Convention ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
CRUDE OIL TANKER EARNINGS DROP 68% IN NINE DAYS - BIMCO
Crude oil tanker earnings have come down sharply in recent weeks with Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) earnings from the Middle East Gulf to China d ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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