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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Saturday, 09 May 20
ANGLO AMERICAN CONSIDERS SPINNING OFF SOUTH AFRICAN COAL OPERATIONS - REUTERS
Diversified miner Anglo American said on Thursday it prefers unbundling and listing its thermal coal operations in South Africa on the Johannesburg ...
Friday, 08 May 20
THE COLLAPSE OF THE OIL AND BUNKER FUEL MARKETS IN EARLY 2020 - PETER SAND
The sulphur regulation from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that came into force on 1 January 2020 took the centre stage in the shipp ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IEEFA UPDATE: THE OUTLOOK FOR THERMAL COAL IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA
Seven headwinds are building to sustained growth in coal in Asia
The medium term outlook for thermal coal in Southeast Asia is posit ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IMO 2020: BUNKER CLAIMS HANDLING GUIDE FOR A NEW DECADE - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
IMO 2020 is the term generally used to describe the following regulations under Annex VI of the International Convention ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
CRUDE OIL TANKER EARNINGS DROP 68% IN NINE DAYS - BIMCO
Crude oil tanker earnings have come down sharply in recent weeks with Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) earnings from the Middle East Gulf to China d ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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