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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Tuesday, 12 May 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESTART HAS SLOWLY BEGUN AS COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD GRADUALLY - ALLIED
A global economic restart has slowly begun as countries around the world gradually set their return back to “normality”. Yet by all mea ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
CAN INDONESIA'S COAL INDUSTRY SURVIVE COVID-19? : IEEFA
Pandemic Lockdown and Slumping Prices Put Extreme Pressure on Coal Miners
Executive Summary
While attention has been focused on th ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO CLOCK RECORD 700 MILLION TONNES IN FY21: COAL SECRETARY - PTI
Coal Secretary Anil Jain said FY20 coal production was lower than the target of 660 million tonnes because of flooding of a key coal mine.
&nbs ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CORONAVIRUS PUTS MORE THAN A THIRD OF SEABORNE COAL SUPPLY AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
The full impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy is yet unclear. However, the demand destruction is already becoming evident, with ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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