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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Monday, 18 May 20
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF VIRUS DISTRACTION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As the industry grapples to deal with exceptional Covid-19-related challenges, a deeper threat is coming to the fore. At this time of crisis, more ...
Monday, 18 May 20
THERMAL COAL SPOT PRICE TUMBLES 25 PER CENT, PUTTING PRESSURE ON SOME PRODUCERS - ABC RURAL
The spot price for thermal coal has fallen 25 per cent per cent in the past month with one leading analyst saying it is because of a reduction in d ...
Monday, 18 May 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 1.3 PCT IN JANUARY-APRIL: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 1.3 percent year on year to 1.15 billion tonnes in the first four months this year, official data showed.
&nbs ...
Sunday, 17 May 20
A 55,000 OPEN ILIGAN FIXING AT $6,500 VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A precipitous fall in the market this week had the Capesize 5TC shedding over 50 per cent in value. A small rebound at the end of the ...
Friday, 15 May 20
CHINA'S COAL CONSUMPTION TO FALL Y/Y IN SECOND QUARTER, IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN SECOND HALF - INDUSTRY BODY: REUTERS
China’s coal consumption is expected to decline in the second quarter from a year earlier, but will see an improvement in the second half of ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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