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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Monday, 18 May 20
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF VIRUS DISTRACTION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As the industry grapples to deal with exceptional Covid-19-related challenges, a deeper threat is coming to the fore. At this time of crisis, more ...
Monday, 18 May 20
THERMAL COAL SPOT PRICE TUMBLES 25 PER CENT, PUTTING PRESSURE ON SOME PRODUCERS - ABC RURAL
The spot price for thermal coal has fallen 25 per cent per cent in the past month with one leading analyst saying it is because of a reduction in d ...
Monday, 18 May 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 1.3 PCT IN JANUARY-APRIL: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 1.3 percent year on year to 1.15 billion tonnes in the first four months this year, official data showed.
&nbs ...
Sunday, 17 May 20
A 55,000 OPEN ILIGAN FIXING AT $6,500 VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A precipitous fall in the market this week had the Capesize 5TC shedding over 50 per cent in value. A small rebound at the end of the ...
Friday, 15 May 20
CHINA'S COAL CONSUMPTION TO FALL Y/Y IN SECOND QUARTER, IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN SECOND HALF - INDUSTRY BODY: REUTERS
China’s coal consumption is expected to decline in the second quarter from a year earlier, but will see an improvement in the second half of ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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