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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Thursday, 21 May 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 610000 MT OF LCV AND HCV COAL FOR 2H 2020
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) has Issued an International Tender for 130,000 mt of 5700 NCV coal an ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
ADARO ENERGY BOOKED A 5% INCREASE IN COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME Y-O-Y IN 1Q2020
PT. Adaro Energy Tbk, Indonesia’s one of the largest coal miner, booked a 5% increase in coal production volume year-over-year in 1Q2020. The ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
BRAZIL SOYBEAN EXPORTS HAVE BEEN SURGING THIS YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil soybean exports have been surging this year, thanks to a combination of strong demand from China, a bumper crop, and favourable exchange rat ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT
Seafarers keep maritime trade going so that the food, raw materials, energy and manufactured goods on which so many depend can continue moving arou ...
Tuesday, 19 May 20
AMENDMENT OF THE INDONESIAN MINING LAW: TYING UP LOOSE ENDS - UMBRA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The finalized draft of Law on the amendment of the Mining Law (Bill) was publicly released on 11 May 2020 and was then ap ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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