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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Friday, 29 May 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF FIVE KOREAN GENCOS INVITED COAL BIDS FOR 5,700 & 4999 NCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf five (5) Korean Gencos has Issued an International Tender for tota ...
Friday, 29 May 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: NO QUICK RECOVERY FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET AS COVID-19 DIGS DEEPER
The outlook is poor for dry bulk, as the negative demand shock and overcapacity come together to send rates to multi-year lows, even a return to wo ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
COVID-19: A FORCE MAJEURE EVENT? - KYPRIANOU
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
While seeing the unexpected COVID-19 outbreak expanding worldwide and the first cases being identified in Cyprus, the com ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
OIL DEMAND RECOVERED BY 20% IN MAY AGAINST APRIL: RUSSIAN ENERGY MINISTER - TASS
Oil demand remains at a low level but the demand in May increased by 20% against April, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said, cited by the ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Earlier in May, China’s top leaders convened for the annual National People's Congress, following over two months of delays due to the co ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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